基于突发事件演化模型的突发事件案例库构建

Construction of the Emergency Case Database Based on the Emergency Evolution Model

[目的/意义]基于突发事件演化模型构建的突发事件案例库,有助于对突发事件进行演化扩展分析,有利于对突发事件进行事前预测、事中处理、事后管理。[方法/过程]采用纵、横向两视角构建突发事件案例库外部结构。纵向视角,遵循突发事件分类体系将其构建为多层次结构;横向视角,遵循突发事件演化规律将其构建为多阶段的链式结构。同时,通过突发事件的情景划分与策略组织来设计内部机理,将每一突发事件划分为由案例情景片断,与情景片段相对应的应急策略组成情景-策略对。[结果/结论]借鉴多视角、多层次的思想,构建的突发事件案例库是一个由不同粒度的粒层组成的粒结构,实现对突发事件信息的空间解聚,细分,可满足人们从不同角度、不同粒度对突发事件案例进行分析与理解。

[ Purpose/significance ] Based on the emergency evolution model, the emergency case database is constructed in this paper. All kinds of unexpected events will be organized into one, and you can see the incident in a full view, which is conductive to the evolution extension analysis for emergency, so as to predict in advance, process in amid, and administrate in end. [ Method/process ] The external structure of the emergency case database was constructed from two perspectives vertical and horizontal. From the vertical perspective, the emergency was organized according to the hierarchical structure of the emergency classification system. From the horizontal perspective, the emergencies were integrated into a whole according to the evolution of emergencies. To design the internal mechanism through the scene classification and organization strategy of emergencies, each emergency case was divided into scenes ; at the same time, emergency strategies corresponding to the scenes formed pairs of scenarios-strategies. From the internal point of view, the whole emergency case database was composed of the scenario database and the strategy database. [ Result/conclusion ] Based on the multi-level ideas, the emergency case database is a granular structure composed of grain layers with different granularity, which can realize the spatial depolymerization and subdivision of the event information. It can meet the needs of people from different angles and different sizes to analyze and understand emergencies.