基于理论模型的渔业安全生产事故分析

Analysis of the Fishery Production Safety Accidents Based on Theory Model

基于普陀区近10年来渔业安全生产各项数据,运用灰色系统理论、多元线性回归等理论模型,对事故引发原因、整改措施、事故预防长效机制建设进行分析研究,以期为海洋捕捞渔业安全生产水平的提升提供参考。模型分析结果表明:(1)碰撞事故、溺水事故、机械事故是近年来较为连续发生的重点事故类型,需要我们重点分析和防范;(2)影响碰撞事故因素中,安装二套安全系统的作用>面对面教育的作用>45 kW以上捕捞渔船总数的影响,从数据分析来看,2009年全区推广安装渔船防碰撞终端,碰撞事故明显出现拐点,说明该系统对解决渔船防碰撞的效果十分突出;(3)溺水事故因素中,45 kW以上捕捞渔船总数的影响>渔民总数的影响>外来人口数量的影响>技能培训的影响,前三个要素关联系数从数值看无太大差别,但均远大于技能培训要素,因此前三个要素在溺水事故中占主导地位;(4)机械事故因素中,45 kW以上捕捞渔船数的影响>渔民总数的影响>平均功率的影响>平均产量的影响>外来人口的影响。

Based on the data of safety production in the past ten years in Putuo district, the gray theory and multiple regression model were used to analyze and research the causes of accidents, corrective measures and the long-term mechanism of accident prevention, with a view to the safe production level of marine capture fishery of the upgrade to provide a reference. The results showed that： （1） Collision accident, drowning ac-cident and mechanical accident were the most cus on analysis and prevention;（2） The effect important types of accidents in recent years, so we needed to fo- of installing two sets of systems in collision accident factors〉the role of face-to-face education〉45 kW fishing fishing boats above the total number of data from the data can also be seen in 2009 to promote the installation of anti-collision system throughout the region, the collision was a turning point, indicating that the system to solve the effects of anti-collision fishing is very prominent; （3） The influence of the total number of fishing vessels above 45 kW in the drowning accident〉the influence of the total number of fishermen〉the influence of the number of the floating population〉the influence of the skill training, the correlation coefficient of the first three elements is not much difference from the numerical value; （4）The impact of fishing accidents over 45 kW〉the impact of the total number of fishers〉the impact of the average power〉the effect of the average yield on the number of fisheries accidents, the impact of migrant population.