长短期视角下外资流入对中国本地投资的影响

The Influence of Foreign Capital Inflow on Local Investment in China from Short and Long Term Perspective

本文基于中国1997Q3~2015Q2的季度数据,通过长期与短期视角相结合、动态与静态分析相结合的方式,研究FDI和非FDI两类国外投资对我国本地投资的"挤入-挤出"作用,以及各经济因素在长短期中对我国投资率的影响。研究证实:FDI对我国本地投资的影响较强,且表现出"先挤入后挤出"的特征;而非FDI对本地投资的影响相对较弱,短期并没有起到显著影响,但长期却会挤出我国本地投资。此外,贸易开放程度、价格贸易条件和货币供应量对我国本地投资始终具有促进作用;经济增长和利率在短期内会对本地投资起到抑制作用,而在长期将转变为促进作用,总体呈现"创造性毁灭";通货膨胀短期内会刺激我国投资率增长,但长期则会起到较强抑制作用。

Based on quarterly data 1997Q3 - 2015Q2 of China, this paper analyzes the ＂crowd in-out＂ effect of FDI and non-FDI on local investment in China, and studies the impact of economic factors on investment rate. It is found that FDI has a strong impact on local investment, which presents the ＂crowd-out after crowd-in＂ characteristics; however, the non-FDI cannot play a significant impact in the short term, hut it can crowd out the local investment in the long term. Furthermore, the openness, the terms of trade and the money supply always promote the local investment. The economic growth and the interest rates inhibit the local investment in the short term, but can promote the investment in the long term, and the total effect presents ＂creative destruction＂. The inflation stimulates China＇ s investment rate in the short term, but will generate a strong inhibitory effect in the long term.