摘要
乳制品产量是衡量一个国家乳业发展情况最重要和最直观的指标。为了实现对乳制品产量的精确预测，在传统灰色模型的基础上，从乳制品质量、相关法律法规及市场体系的完整度、市场消费三个角度出发，提出一种衡量国内乳制品产业综合发展环境的指标——质量安全系数，并依此对灰色模型的预测结果进行修正。用我国乳制品2005～2016年12年的产量实际数据进行实证分析，证明了质量安全系数修正的灰色模型对乳制品产量预测的精确性和有效性。
The output of dairy products is the most important and most intuitive indicator to measure the development of a country＇s dairy industry. In order to forecast the output of dairy production accurately, based on the traditional grey model, this paper started from the quality of dairy products, the completeness of relevant laws and the market system, the market consumption, put forward a index to measure the development environment of domestic dairy industry. We call it the quality and safety ratio and correct the results of grey model with the ratio. Finally, the actual data of dairy production in China from 2005 to 2016 were used for checkout, the result proved the accuracy and validity of the modified grey model.
作者
卞文
BIAN Wen(School of Management Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Finances and Economic)
出处
《中国乳业》
2017年第9期10-15,共6页
China Dairy
