人口聚集、经济扩散及其不一致状况——来自长江三角洲的经验研究

Population Agglomeration, Economic Dispersion and Inconsistent Pattern: Evidence from the Yangtze River Delta

在区域发展环境变化及发展格局转变情况下,文章引入地理集中度、不一致指数及不均衡指数等方法,对比分析2000—2015年长江三角洲人口、经济地理集中度及人口与经济不一致指数的时空格局演变趋势,并基于面板数据回归对人口与经济不一致指数的影响因素进行实证研究。结果表明,在经济分布向边缘区扩散的格局下,人口分布总体呈现向核心区集聚的态势,由此带来的人口与经济不一致指数变化主要表现为核心区的上升与边缘区的下降,且人口与经济空间布局的协调性有所提高。对不一致指数影响因素的定量分析表明,市场力量、政府政策及城市发展状况等都对人口与经济分布不一致性产生重要的影响。

Since the 21st century, with the change of regional development environment and structure, the spatial distribution pattern of population and economic around the Yangtze River Delta also presents some changes. This study compares and analyzes the spatial-temporal pattern evolution of geographic concentration and inconsistent index about the population and economic for the Yangtze River Delta during 2000-2015. Meanwhile, the influence factors about their inconsistencies are empirically analyzed based on the panel data regression. The results show that under the pattern of the economic distribution spreading to the regional edge, the population tends to gather to the central region on the whole. Such inconsistence setup between the population and economic is mainly demonstrated by the increase of central regions and the decline of marginal areas, and also by the improvement of the coordination between population and economic spatial layouts. Finally, by the quantitative analyses about the factors to these inconsistencies, it is concluded that the market forces, government policies, urban development status and so on have an important impact on the inconsistence between the population and economic distributions.