高炮对战斗机毁伤概率影响因素灵敏度仿真分析

Sensibility Analysis of Firing Data of Anti-aircraft Gun Effecting on Kill Probability of Fighter by Computer Simulating

为定量分析高炮射击诸元等参数对飞机毁伤概率的影响程度,以高炮到目标的斜距离、高炮射击误差、单发命中弹的毁伤概率等7种基本变量为研究对象,以某高炮在选定的典型射击参数和航路条件下对F16战斗机射击为例,通过编程分别计算出了不同变量条件下的毁伤概率,得出了上述7种变量对毁伤概率的定量影响曲线。计算分析数据表明:前4种与毁伤概率负相关的变量中,高炮到目标的斜距离对毁伤概率的影响最大,后面各项递减;后3种与毁伤概率正相关的变量中,射速对毁伤概率的影响最小,射击的点射时间长度次之,单发命中弹的毁伤概率的影响最大。计算分析得出的有关结论可以为相关工程实践提供参考。

In order to analysis effects of firing data and other parameters of anti-aircraft gun（AAG） on kill probability of fight, the distance between gun and target, firing error of AAG, mean square deviation of random error of fire control device, mean square deviation of gun dispersion error, rate of fire, time of firing in bursts, kill probability of single shot hit projectile were chosen intentionally. The kill proba-bilities of one AAG were calculated respectively by computer simulation with typical firing data and F16 as the target on the condition of the seven variables. The results showed that the four former variables have descending negative correlation with the kill probability, and the latter three variables have increasing positive correlation with the kill probability. The conclusions based on the calculation and analysis can provide beneficial reference to AAG engineering practice.