南宁市2004—2014年60岁以上HIV/AIDS病例时空聚集性研究

Spatiotemporal clusters of older adults with HIV/AIDS in Nanning,2004-2014

目的探测2004—2014年南宁市60岁以上HIV/AIDS病例时空聚集性,为南宁市HIV/AIDS的防控提供科学参考。方法从乡镇/街道办事处尺度上,对2004—2014年南宁市60岁以上HIV/AIDS病例报告发病率用泊松模型的时空扫描统计量(spatiotemporal scan statistics based on Poisson model)进行小尺度时空聚集性探测,并用地理信息系统(geographical information system,GIS)实现探测结果的可视化。结果 2004—2014年南宁市60岁以上HIV/AIDS高发的时空聚集区共有2个。其中主要聚集区的中心为横县云表镇,共27个乡镇,始于2010年,止于2014年(LLR=672.25,RR=4.39,P<0.001);次要聚集区以隆安县那桐镇为中心,共7个乡镇,始于2010年,止于2014年(LLR=405.34,RR=6.69,P<0.001)。结论 2004—2014年南宁市60岁以上HIV/AIDS病例具有时空聚集性,相关部门应该加强对60岁以上HIV/AIDS时空高发聚集区的防控工作。

Objective To detect the spatiotemporal cluster of older adults with HIV/AIDS at the township level in Nanning City, from 2004 to 2014, so as to provide the references for improving the prevention and control of HIV/AIDS.Methods On the township, the spatiotemporal scan statistics based on the Poisson model were employed to detect the spatiotemporal clusters of older adults（above 60 years old） with HIV/AIDS in Nanning City from 2004 to 2014. Results Ultimately, two spatiotemporal clusters were detected by the spatiotemporal scan statistics. Among the clusters, the first-level cluster happened in the region with Yunbiao Town as a center, including 27 towns from 2010 to 2014（LLR =672.25, RR=4.39,P〈0.001）; the second-level cluster happened in the region with Natong Town as a center, including 7 towns from 2010 to 2014（LLR=405.34, RR=6.69, P〈0.001）. Conclusions The spatiotemporal scan statistics could be applied to reveal the spatiotemporal clusters of older adults with HIV/AIDS in Nanning City. The health departments should strengthen the prevention and control of HIV in the areas with spatiotemporal clustering of the epidemic.