居民用电需求预测的人工神经网络方法

Artificial Neural Network Approach for Residential Electricity Demand Forecast

由于家用电器与用电量之间存在非线性关系 ,不能用线性模型来预测家用电器对居民用电量的影响。利用人工神经网络建立家用电器拥有量与居民人均年用电量之间的非线性映射关系 ,以居民家用电器的拥有情况为输入变量 ,预测居民的人均年需用电量。实际算例显示了该方法的快速性和有效性。

The relation between the demand of electricity and the nember of the domestic appliances cannot be decribed and predected by the linear regression model because of their non linear relation. The artificial neural method, as a new one, is proposed in the paper to forecast the domestic demand using the nembers as the input The effectiveness and highspeed of the new method are verified by the forecast results of an example.