基于系统动力学的资源型城市低碳发展路径研究

Low-carbon Development Path of Resource-based Cities Based on System Dynamics

目前,资源型城市面临着经济健康发展与二氧化碳减排的双重压力。资源型城市需要积极寻找有效的调控政策来实现经济的低碳发展。本文运用系统动力学模型对不同政策路径对CO2减排效果进行定量预测并对结果加以比较分析,以期为相关政策的制定提供决策依据。基于这一目的,本文以唐山市为例,首先对资源型城市进行系统分析以确定资源型城市低碳发展的主要影响因素和子系统;其次,构建资源型城市低碳发展路径的指标体系,建立因果回路图和流量图;最后,根据2005-2014年的历史数据对唐山市2015-2020年的CO2排放状况进行情景预测并提出政策建议。

At present,Resource-based cities are faced with the dual pressure which the one is the healthy development of the economy and the other is carbon emission reductions.Different low-carbon development path of resource-based cities has different impact on CO_2 emissions.In order to provide scientific evidence,system dynamics model is proposed for forecasting and comparing the carbon reduction effects of the different path.Based on such an objective,Energy flux and the general framework are firstly analyzed firstly.Second,the index system,causal relationship and flow diagram are proposed for the low-carbon development path of resource-based cities.Finally,this paper uses SD model to forecast the CO_2 emissions of Tangshan in 2005-2020 through scene analysis.According to the results of model prediction,relevant suggestions are put forward.