我国房价调控有效性的经验分析与理论解释

Empirical Analysis and Theoretical Explanation on the Effectiveness of Housing Price Regulation in China

自2004年我国首次实施收紧房地产调控政策以来,房价呈不断上涨趋势,房价调控有效性备受公众质疑。我国房价调控经历了由宽松到紧缩三个周期,宽松政策的平均时间相对紧缩政策历时短,二者对房价的影响也具有不对称性。我国房价调控有效性的理论解释包括宽松货币政策、政府土地垄断高价、流通环节的高税费成本,以及行政手段低效。要促进房价平稳,需要完善现有的各类调控政策,并保持政策连续性。

The effectiveness of housing price regulation has been questioned by the public since China implements tightening regulation policy for the first time in 2004. China's housing price has experienced three cycles from easing to tightening. The average duration of the easing policy is shorter than that of the tightening policy,but their impact on the housing price is asymmetric. Easing monetary policy,high price of land monopoly,high tax cost of house circulation and inefficient administrative means can theoretically explain the effectiveness of China's housing price regulation. To keep housing price stable,government needs to improve regulatory policies,and to maintain the policy continuity.