中国茶产业供求失衡的再思考——基于国内主要茶叶市场数据的分析

Over-supply of Tea in China——A Marketing Analysis

利用中国主要茶叶交易市场的年度数据,拟合出中国茶叶消费需求的年度变化,在此基础上结合中国历年的茶叶产量、茶叶出口量等,对2013年以来中国茶产业的供求缺口进行了分析。结论显示,中国茶产业的快速扩张,导致茶叶供过于求的趋势不断加剧,供求缺口持续扩大,2016年国内茶叶市场供求缺口达到42.19万吨,占该年国内茶叶市场供给量的20%。因此,从供给和需求两个层面提出相对应的政策,从供给侧结构性改革来看,主要的政策建议包括建立具有约束性的全国茶产业中长期发展规划、建立茶产业供求失衡预警机制、大力发展茶叶深加工和淘汰落后产能;从需求端来看,主要的政策建议是借"一带一路"推动中国茶叶出口和大力培育新的茶叶消费群体。

The year-to-year tea consumptions in China as shown on the annual reports of the major tea markets in the country were compiled for the analysis.It was found that an increasing gap existed between the supply and demand on the market since 2013.The over-supply continued to climb and reached 421,900 tons in 2016,which accounted for 20% of the total annual domestic tea output.The increase was attributed mainly to the rapid expansion of tea planation.Indeed,from a supply-side perspective,improvement on the business structure could reduce the imbalance.However,it might necessitate policies that restrict and provide long-term development planning and strategy with early warning mechanism for the industry,as well as capital infusion and determination from the industry that foster development of innovative new products and processing technologies.Meanwhile,on the demand-side,aggressive marketing efforts to stimulate and increasing sales could also minimize or alleviate the current off balanced situation.To extend exportation via the global ＂Belt and Road＂commerce and to expand domestic market by cultivating new consumer bases would deem appropriate or necessary.