基于灰色关联分析的煤矿冲击地压预测

Prediction of coal mine rock burst based on grey relational analysis

根据冲击地压危险性评价的相关理论,采用系统决策法和灰色理论,建立组合预测数学模型,研究冲击地压所属级别。充分利用大量历史数据,选取煤层冲击倾向性、采深、煤层稳定性、煤层倾角、地质构造、巷道支护效果和卸压情况7个关键因素作为评判指标,将定性、定量因素标准化处理后分别采用层次分析法和灰色关联分析法来确定7个因素的权重和灰色关联度,建立层次灰色组合预测模型判定冲击地压等级。工程实例表明,研究结果与现场具有很好的一致性,说明该预测方法处理冲击地压分级这种具有一定主观性和灰色性的问题是合理可行的。

According to the correlative theories of rock burst danger evaluation,and adopting the system decision method and the grey theory,a comprehensive forecasting mathematics model was established,and the classification of rock burst in mine were researched. On the basis of fully using the rock burst measured data of the researched coal mine,selecting seven key factors as the assessment parameters,which are coal burst tendency,mining depth,coal seam stability,coal seam dip angle,geologic structure,roadway supporting effect and pressure relief situation. The grey correlational analysis（ GCA） algorithm and the analytic hierarchy process（ AHP） method were applied to determine the weight and the grey correlational degree of the seven key factors respectively after normalizing the quantitative factors and qualitative factors,and the AHP-GCA combined forecasting model to determine the grade of rock burst was successfully built. Predicting results show that the experimental conclusions are consistent with the accrual cases. It is reasonable and feasible to apply this prediction method to solve the grade issues of rock burst,which have the characters of subjectivity and grey property.