南水北调东线江苏受水区土地利用变化模拟及生态安全评价

Land use change and ecological security evaluation of Jiangsu Province in the eastern route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project

利用多期土地利用遥感数据,分析南水北调东线江苏受水区2000—2010年间土地利用变化情况;采用CAMarkov模型对2010—2020年间该区土地利用情况的演变规律进行模拟;同时构建基于"压力-状态-响应"(pressure-state-response,PSR)模型的土地利用生态安全评价指标体系,综合评价受水区不同时期土地利用生态安全状况。结果表明:1)受水区土地利用类型以耕地为主,研究期间林地和水域面积有所扩大,大量耕地转变为城乡建设用地;2)基于CA-Markov模型对研究区2010年土地利用格局的模拟结果与实际进行对比分析,模拟正确的栅格数达到了99.1%,Kappa系数达到0.99,能够较好地反映受水区土地利用格局变化趋势;3)土地利用生态安全评价结果显示2000年、2010年和2020年土地生态安全指数分别为0.51,0.68和0.73,分别达到预警、敏感和良好等级,受水区的人口、资源环境及社会经济开始协调发展,整体呈现好转趋势。

In this paper,the authors studied land use changes of the eastern route of the South to North Water Transfer Project in Jiangsu Province based on land use data from 2000 to 2010,and simulated and predicted land use patterns from 2010 to 2020 based on CA-Markov model. 'Pressure-State-Response'( PSR) model was used to establish the evaluation index system of land ecological security in the hope of evaluating the ecological security of land use in different periods. Some conclusions have been reached: 1) The main land use type in the area was cultivated land and the area of forest land,water was enlarged,and a large amount of cultivated land was changed into urban and rural areas. 2) The simulation results of land use pattern in 2010 based on CA-Markov model indicated that the correct grid number reached 99. 1% compared with the actual one and the Kappa coefficient reached 0. 99,which could reflect change trend of land use pattern in the area. 3) The ecological safety of the region showed gradually improvement and,for the year 2000,2010,2020,the land ecological security index was 0. 51,0. 68 and 0. 73,respectively achieving the early warning,sensitivity and good grades,which indicated coordinate development of population,resources,environment and society.