中国卫生资源需求预测研究

Demand Prediction on Healthcare Resources in China

目的预测中国十三五期间卫生资源需求,以期为中国卫生计生事业十三五规划提供参考依据。方法通过《2016年中国卫生和计划生育统计年鉴》收集数据资料,运用GM(1,1)模型预测中国十三五期间卫生资源需求。结果根据预测的结果,2020年中国医疗卫生机构、床位数、卫生技术人员数、执业(助理)医师数、注册护士数、卫生总费用将分别达到1 052 363个、1 064.20万张、14 191 758人、3 796 298人、5 255 376人、85 958.71亿元,医护比将达到1∶1.38。结论 GM(1,1)模型可用于对中国卫生资源的预测;政府应当加大对执业(助理)医师的培养力度,并加快教育教学制度改革,培养更多高学历护理人员。

Objective To predict the demands for healthcare resources during the 13th Five - Year Plan and provide references for the healthcare services development. Methods Relevant data were collected by the China Health Statistics Yearbook 2016. GM （1,1） model was used to predict the demand for health resources the 13th Five - Year Plan. Results According to the rediction, the number of health care institutions, beds, health technicians, practicing （ assistant） doctors and registered nurses, will reach 1 052 363 , 1 064. 2 million, 14 191 758 , 3 796 298, and 5 255 376, respectively. The to-tal health expenses well reach RMB 85 958.71 trillion yuan. The physician - nurse ratio will reach 1： 1 .3 8 . Conclusion GM （1 , 1） model can be used to predict the healthcare resources in China ; The government should strengthen the cultivation of practicing （assistant） doctors, and accelerate the teaching reform of education system to train more highly educated nurses.