基于APT逻辑的恐怖事件因果关系分析

APT Logic-based Causality Analysis of Terrorist Incidents

近年来,世界范围内恐怖事件频发,严重威胁国际社会安全,恐怖事件分析已成为内容安全领域的研究热点。APT逻辑是指通过建立规则,对时序事件因果关系建立推理模型,在多个领域得到了广泛应用。在前人工作的基础上,文章提出了一种灵活性和可扩展性较好的基于APT逻辑的恐怖事件因果关系分析算法,并使用全球恐怖主义数据库中的数据对极端组织"伊斯兰国"发动的恐怖事件的因果关系进行研究,且对结果进行了测试。文章得到了部分恐怖事件的因果关系对,对研究恐怖事件提供了帮助。

In recent years, terrorist incidents have occurred frequently in the world, which seriously threatens the safety of the international community. The analysis of terrorist incidents has become a hot topic in the field of content security. APT logic proposes a reasoning model for causal relationships of temporal events by establishing rules, which has been widely used in many fields. On the basis of previous works, this paper propose a flexible and extensible causality analysis algorithm of terrorist incidents based on APT logic, and uses the data from the Global Terrorism Database to investigate the causal relationships between terrorist attacks conducted by the ISIS. The paper tests the results and gets some causal relationships between some of the terrorist attacks, which provide help for the study of terrorist incidents.