非正规金融、过度敏感性与中国农村居民消费——基于2003至2014年省际面板数据的经验分析

Informal Finance,Excessive Sensitivity and Consumption of Chinese Rural Residents——An Empirical Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data 2003-2014

基于拓展的Campbell-Mankiw(1990)模型框架,选择中国农村2003至2014年省际面板数据,运用控制个体效应的面板工具变量—广义矩估计(IV-GMM)检验了非正规金融与农村居民消费的关系。研究表明,农村居民消费对收入变动以及非正规金融变动均存在"过度敏感性",收入敏感性系数远高于非正规金融系数;两者的敏感性系数表现出明显的区域性特征,形成从西到东递减的梯度,意味着西部农户面临更为严重的流动性约束;人口抚养系数对消费的影响不够显著,而不确定性具有较大的负向影响。扩大内需的关键在于构建农村居民收入增长的长效机制,形成正规与非正规金融相互补充的多层次金融服务体系。

Based on the extended model framework of Campbell-Mankiw （1990）, we adopt the panel instrumental variable-generMized moment estimation（IV-GMM）to control individual effect and test the relationship between informal finance and consumption of Chinese rural residents. The data come from Chinese rural provincial panel data from 2003 to 2014. The study shows that the consumption of rural residents has ＂excessive sensitivity＂ to income changes and informal financial changes, and the income sensitivity coefficient is much higher than that of informal finance. The sensitivity coefficients of these two factors show obvious regional characteristics, forming a descending gradient from the west to the east, which means that western farmers are faced with more severe liquidity constraints. The impact of population dependency ratio on consumption is not significant, and uncertainty has a large negative impact. The key for expanding domestic demand is to build a long- term mechanism for the growth of rural residents＇ income, and to form a multi-level financial service system in which formal and informal finance complement each other.