房价上涨与工业产出:促进还是抑制

Growing Housing Prices and Industrial Output: Promoting or Restraining

从理论上看,房价上涨对工业产出存在成本效应、投资转移效应、关联效应、融资效应和分配效应等,房价上涨对工业产出会产生抑制作用。本文利用省级面板数据进行实证,发现房价上涨对工业产出具有抑制作用,且存在经济发展水平与人均人力资本门限,说明房价上涨对工业产出的抑制作用存在区域差异。为降低房价上涨对工业产出的抑制作用,应从降低工业企业成本、深化工业企业创新体制机制改革着手,并根据各省市区具体情况采取差别化的政策。

In theory, house prices have muhiple effects on industrial output. The effect includes cost effect, investment transfer effect, correlative effect, financing effect and distribution effect, and so on. The total effect of growing house prices on industrial output is restrained theoretically. Based on provincial panel data for empirical evidence, this paper finds that housing prices have an inhibitory effect on industrial output. Further research finds that the existence of economic development level and per capita human capital threshold of the restraint effect indicates that there are regional differences about the restraint effect of growing house prices on industrial output. In order to reduce the restraint effect, we should cut the cost of industrial enterprises, deepen the innovation system of industrial enterprises, and adopt different policies according to the specific situation of each province.