出口信用保险贸易促进作用的地区差异和门槛效应——基于中国省际面板数据的分析

The Threshold Effect of Export Credit Insurance's Trade Promotion Effect and Regional Difference: Based on the Provincial Level Panel Data of China

本文基于中国进出口信用保险公司22家省级分公司的业务数据,以出口信用保险保费而非保额为核心解释变量,构建了分析出口信用保险出口促进作用的省际面板数据模型。利用工具变量法,以2SLS和GMM法估计有效地解决了出口额和保费间的内生性问题。实证结果表明,出口信用保险对中国出口有显著的促进作用,金融危机期间表现得尤其明显,具有较强的"逆周期性"。出口信用保险的出口促进作用存在显著的地区差异,对中部地区出口的边际促进作用最大,西部次之,东部最小。出口信用保险的出口促进作用还具有显著的门槛效应,当发展到特定水平,越过某个门槛后,对出口的促进作用会显著增强,甚至发生质的飞跃。对赔付率低且稳定的中西部省份,保险人应实施积极的承保策略,以更有效地促进出口。通过出口信用保险政策支持出口必须将支持力度提高至一定的水平,否则不会产生预期的效果。

Based on the panel data of 22 provincial subsidiaries of China Export ＆ Credit Insurance Corporation, this paper used export credit insurance premiums instead of sum insured as the core explanatory variable to con- struet an inter-province panel data model for analyzing the trade promotion effect of export credit insurance. Taking an instrumental strategy and using 2SLS and GMM estimation methods, this paper effectively solved the endogeneity arising from the reverse causality between exports and export credit insurance premiums. The empirical results showed that export credit insurance significantly promoted China＇ s exports especially during the global financial cri- sis, and showed counter-cyclical characteristics. There existed conspicuous regional difference in the trade-enhancing effect of export credit insurance. Central China enjoyed the biggest marginal effect of trade improvement followed by the west and the east. It also exhibited a threshold effect in the facilitation of exports of export credit insurance. Once the development of export credit insurance surpassed a certain level or threshold, its function of trade promotion would become stronger, even with a substantial leap. With the fact that the claims ratio of export credit insurance was relatively low for some western or central provinces, China Export ＆ Credit Insurance Corporation should accel- erate the development of export credit insurance in these regions in order to increase their exports. For export credit insurance to help increase exports, governments should drive the development of export credit insurance to a higher level. Otherwise, the effects may be disappointing.