中国省际人口迁移的地缘效应与驱动机制:男女有别吗?

Geographical Effects and Driving Mechanism of Inter-provincial Migration in China:Are Men and Women Different?

文章基于空间OD模型和"六普"人口省际迁移流数据,研究中国人口省际迁移流的地缘效应、驱动机制与男女差异。文章得出的主要结论:(1)中国人口迁移流内含显著的空间依赖,其中迁出、迁入地独立的空间自相关效应促进人口迁移,而迁出地-迁入地交互的空间自相关效应阻碍人口迁移。(2)总体上,中国人口省际迁移流受迁出地推力作用弱于迁入地的拉力作用,表明人口迁移更多是出于对迁入地的"美好预期",而非对迁出地的"过度抱怨"。(3)人口迁移流的驱动机制有显著的性别差异:女性迁移流受驱动因子的影响强于男性,女性的失业风险、就业歧视更为明显;男性在人口迁移的空间选择上受空间依赖的影响强于女性,这与性别禀赋和社会环境有关。

Using the spatial OD model,this study analyzes the migration flows among 31 provinces in China by exploring geographical effects, driving mechanism, and gender differences based on the in- ter-provincial migration data of the 6th Population Census. Inter-provincial migration exhibit significant spatial dependence,in which the origin and destination separate spatial autocorrelation promotes mi- gration,whereas the origin-destination joint spatial autocorrelation hinders migration. In general, the ＂push＂ from origin is weaker than the ＂pull＂ from destination in Chinese inter-provincial migration. There are significant gender differences in the driving mechanism.lmpact of driving factors on female mi- gration is stronger than that for male migration. Unemployment risk and employment discrimination are more evident in female migration. Males are more strongly influenced by spatial dependence than fe- males in the choice of migration destination,which could be explained by the gender differences of en- dowment and social environment.