中国人口老龄化对金融资产价格影响研究

The Effects of Population Ageing on Financial Assets Price in China

文章对国内外相关文献进行系统的回顾,建立了人口老龄化对金融资产价格作用的机理和路径。利用中国1990~2015年历史数据建立人口老龄化和金融资产价格之间关系的向量自回归(Vector Autoregression,VAR)模型,实证分析结果表明人口老龄化对金融资产价格有稳定的负向影响。从预测角度,脉冲分析结果进一步证实,如果对人口老龄化程度添加1个额外的正向冲击,将对金融资产价格产生长期的负向影响。文章认为中国人口老龄化在未来不会导致金融资产价格崩溃,但金融资产回报率的下降需要引起警惕,因为未来退休人口将更多地依赖个人储蓄及资产回报,而非传统的退休金。文章对中国未来金融资产价格的下降趋势提出预警,提出政府应该前瞻性地从人口和金融两方面加强宏观管理,做出政策选择。

Building up the path way linking population ageing and financial assets price and using historical data of 1990- 2015 in China,this paper applies a vector autoregression model to explore the relationship between population ageing and financial assets price.The empirical analysis results show that population ageing has a long-term negative impact on financial assets price. From the predictive view,the pulse analysis has further confirmed that one additional positive shock added to ageing popu- lation could result in a long-term negative impact on financial assets price.This paper suggests that al- though population ageing would not be likely to lead to meltdown of finacial assets,the decrease of fi- nancial assets return should be vigilant seriously.The paper concludes with discussion on policy implica- tions for population and finance management.