我国农药使用强度的演进特征与省际收敛——基于1991-2014年省级面板数据的分析

Evolution characteristics and provincial convergence of pesticide application density in China: An empirical study based on the provincial data from 1991 to 2014

推进农药减量使用和科学使用,是保障农业生产安全、农产品质量安全与生态环境安全和实现农业可持续发展的内在要求。在分析1991-2014年我国农药使用强度演进特征的基础上,分别对全国、东部地区、中部地区和西部地区农药使用强度的省际收敛情况进行了检验。研究结果表明:全国及各省份农药使用强度均显著提高,东、中、西部地区省份的农药使用强度总体上依次递减;各地区农药使用强度最高省份和最低省份的绝对差距均进一步扩大,且东部地区省份的绝对差距显著大于中部地区省份和西部地区省份;全国及各地区省际绝对σ收敛趋势不具有一致性,全国各省份和西部地区省份的农药使用强度绝对差距未显著缩小,中部地区省份显著缩小,东部地区省份则显著扩大;全国及各地区省际绝对β收敛和条件β收敛趋势具有一致性,初期农药使用强度较低省份的农药使用强度增长速度更快,离自身稳态值越远的省份农药使用强度增长速度也越快;与东、西部地区省份相比,中部地区省份农药使用强度的收敛速度要更快。最后,提出开展区域性综合防治、推行可持续防控、加强监测预警等科学有效控制农药使用的政策建议。

Promoting the reduction and scientific application of pesticide is an internal requirement of safeguarding the safety of agricultural production, agricultural product quality and ecological environment, and realizing the sustainable development of agriculture. This paper analyzed the evolution characteristics of pesticide application density in China from 1991 to 2014, and then tested the provincial convergence of the whole nation, eastern region, central region and western region respectively. Results show that： there was a remarkable increase in pesticide application density of both national and provincial levels, and the pesticide application intensities of eastern provinces, central provinces, and western provinces was decreasing in general in the above order. The absolute gaps with the highest and the lowest pesticide application densities between provinces of the three regions were further expanded, and the absolute gaps of eastern provinces were remarkably higher than that of central provinces and western provinces. The provincial absolute a convergence trend was not consistent in national level and regional level. The absolute gap of pesticide application density was not significantly reduced in the nation in general and in western provinces, but significantly was reduced in central provinces and even significantly expanded in eastern provinces. The provincial absoluteβ convergence and conditionalβconvergence trends were consistent in both national and regional levels. In addition, the pesticide application densities of provinces with relative lower density in initial stage and the provinces which further away from their steady-state values have faster growth speed. Compared with eastern provinces and western provinces, the converging speed of pesticide application density of central provinces was faster. Finally, this paper provides thefollowing policy recommendations to scientifically and effectively control pesticide applications： to carry out regionally comprehensive prevention and treatment, to implement sustainable prevention and control, and to strengthen monitoring and early warning systems.