环境规制会抑制农民工城镇就业吗

Will Environmental Regulations Kill the Employment of Rural Migrant Workers?

绿色发展理念的践行和环境规制强度的提高是否会对农民工城镇就业产生影响?文章从环境规制下厂商对农民工就业需求和环境规制下农民工就业行为选择两方面将环境规制对农民工城镇就业影响进行了理论分析,进一步通过1998—2014年省际面板数据实证分析了环境规制对农民工城镇就业的直接影响和环境规制的产业变动效应对农民工城镇就业的间接影响。研究发现:环境规制强度的提高会抑制农民工城镇就业,且高收入地区环境规制对农民工城镇就业的负向影响大于低收入地区;整体上看,环境规制强度的提高会引发企业进行产业转移或产业升级而降低农民工城镇就业需求;分地区看,高收入地区环境规制强度提高主要通过产业升级效应对城镇农民工就业产生负面影响,产业转移负面影响并不显著;而低收入地区环境规制强度提高主要通过产业转移对农民工城镇就业产生抑制作用,产业升级效应并不显著。

With the practice of idea of green development and enhancement of environmental regulations,will environmental regulations restrain the rural surplus labors migration from countries to cities？ Firstly,we made theoretical analysis of the impact of environmental regulations on the rural migrant workers from the perspectives of labor demand of manufacturers and the behavioral selection of the rural migrant workers under the environmental regulations. Then, we made quantitative analysis of the direct impact of environmental regulations on the urban employment of rural migrant workers and the indirect impact of environmental regulations on the urban employment of rural migrant workers through the transfer and upgrading of industries promoted by environment regulations based on the provincial panel data from 1998 to 2014. The results show that： Firstly,environment regulations have direct restraining effect on the urban employment of rural migrant workers and the effect on the rural migrant workers in high income areas is greater than the effect on the rural migrant workers in low income areas. Secondly,as a whole,environment regulations would decrease the demand of rural migrant workers by promoting the transferring or upgrading of industries. Thirdly,as far as different income areas are concerned,environment regulations would decrease the demand of rural migrant workers by promoting the upgrading of industries and the effect of transferring of industries is not significant in high income areas. However, environment regulations would decrease the demand of rural migrant workers by promoting the transferring of industries and the effect of upgrading of industries is not significant.