农民工城市定居意愿研究述评

Review on Urban Settlement Intention of the Migrant Workers

推进农民工市民化是新型城镇化的主要任务,提高农民工城市定居意愿是影响农民工迁居的关键环节。从农民工迁移定居的基本事实、理论研究框架和研究方法以及影响农民工定居的因素等几个方面对既有文献进行梳理。文献回顾表明,进城农民工中近四成定居城市意愿强烈,三成左右在定居与返乡之间摇摆;定居意愿研究呈现多学科交融态势,Logistics类回归分析是主要定性分析工具;影响农民工定居意愿的因素可归结为经济、社会、制度、心理等诸多方面,其中非经济因素重要性在逐渐上升。采用纵向面板数据,提高全国代表性城市调查数据利用效率,多角度引进心理学和行为经济学研究方法和视角,以家庭为主要分析单元是未来研究的努力方向。

The task of the new urbanization is to propel citizen process about migrant workers,and it is critical for migration to improve their urban settlement intention.This paper has classified and sorted the literature from basic information,theoretical research framework,research technique and influence factors about migration and settlement of migrant workers.The results indicate that more than forty percent hope to dwell in the city strongly and about thirty percent swing between staying and returning.Meanwhile,the current studies of settlement intention has presented multidisciplinary blend,and logistics regression is the main qualitative analysis tool.Influence factors can be concluded to economy,society,system,psychology and so on,in which the importance of non-economic factors is increasing.This paper points out the directions for future research,including using longitudinal panel data,enhancing the utilize efficiency of survey data from nationally representative cities,introducing new research methods and perspectives in psychology and behavioral economics,and viewing family as a main unit of analysis.