产业结构变迁促进了经济增长吗?——基于中国省际数据的空间计量分析

Has Industrial Structure Change Promoted Economic Growth?

基于中国29个省市1993-2014年的数据建立空间自回归模型和空间误差模型,分析产业结构变迁、技术进步对经济增长的影响。结果表明:(1)经济增长和产业结构变迁过程均存在显著的空间关联性,并与空间分布格局和空间集聚类型密切相关。(2)产业结构变迁和技术进步对经济增长有显著正向影响,且存在明显的空间依赖型和空间异质性。(3)资本存量、劳动投入与基础设施建设依然是经济增长的重要源泉。

Based on China＇s 29 provinces in the years of 1993-2014,spatial auto-regression model and spatial error model are established to analyze the effects of industrial structure change and technological progress on economic growth.The results show that：First,the process of economic growth and industrial structure changes are significantly spatial correlation,and spatial distribution patterns and spatial clustering type is closely related.Second,industrial structure changes with technological progress has significant positive impact on economic growth,and there are obvious spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity.Third,the capital stock,labor input and infrastructure construction are still important sources of economic growth.