“全面二孩”政策对城镇职工医保统筹基金的影响:改善抑或恶化

The Impact of Universal Two-child Policy on the Solvency of Pooling Fund of Basic Medical Insurance for Urban Employees:Improving or Worsening?

现阶段,人口老龄化使得中国社会保险基金支付压力不断提高。为缓解老龄化程度并解决其带来的相关问题,中国出台"全面二孩"政策以替代原有的"单独二孩"政策。文章以城镇职工医保为例,运用精算模型定量评估"全面二孩"政策对统筹基金的影响,研究发现:(1)按照现行制度模式,如果继续执行"单独二孩"政策,统筹基金将于2040年出现累计赤字,2065年累计赤字约为62.44万亿元;(2)实施"全面二孩"政策后,在不同生育意愿下,统筹基金出现累计赤字的时点没有发生变化,但2065年累计赤字下降5.33%-40.73%;(3)进一步,如果自2022年起退休年龄每年延迟6个月直至达到65岁,在不同"全面二孩"生育意愿下,统筹基金出现累计赤字的时点将推迟7-25年,2065年累计赤字随之降低63.59%-98.99%。可见,"全面二孩"政策能降低城镇职工医保统筹基金的累计赤字,为促进其可持续发展,可与延迟退休年龄等政策同步实施。

With the rapid population aging, the payment pressure of China＇ s social insurance fund is increasing year by year. To relieve population aging and solve relevant problems induced by population aging, China＇ s fertility policy changes from selective two-child policy to universal two-child policy. Taking basic medical insurance for urban employees for example, this paper establishes actuarial models to quantitatively analyze the effect of fertility policy adjustment on the pooling fund of basic medical insurance for urban employees. The results are shown as follows： firstly, according to the existing system mode, if selective two-child policy is still employed, the accumulated deficit of the pooling fund will appear in 2040, and the accumulated deficit of the year of 2065 will be 62440 billion yuan; secondly, after implementing universal two- child policy, under different fertility willingness, the time of accumulated deficit will not be changed, but the accumulated deficit of the year of 2065 will decrease by 5.33% to 40.73%; thirdly, if the retirement age is further delayed 6 months per year from the year of 2022 until the retirement age is up to 65 years old, under different fertility willingness, the time of accumulated deficit will be postponed 7 to 25 years, and accumulated deficit of the year of 2065 will decrease by 63.59% to 98.99%. Therefore, universal two-child policy can decrease the accumulated deficit of the pooling fund of basic medical insurance for urban employees, and can be implemented accompanied by delayed retirement age and other policies, to further promote the sustainability of the pooling fund.