金融稳定目标下中国货币政策规则研究

Research on Chinese Monetary Policy Rules under the Target of Financial Stability

未考虑金融稳定目标的货币政策规则会忽视物价稳定下金融过度繁荣累积的潜在风险。文章在通货膨胀和产出两个目标变量的基础上,将金融稳定以指数的形式加入货币政策目标中,对包含金融稳定目标的泰勒规则所具有的特性进行了研究。研究发现:(1)金融稳定和产出在货币政策中可以平稳地传导,通货膨胀在货币政策中的传导不平稳。(2)央行在高通胀时会增加对金融稳定目标的关注,高通胀时产出缺口的扩大对利率的影响比低通胀时要大,利率需对通货紧缩做出更大的反应。(3)如果参照未包含金融稳定目标的货币政策规则进行宏观调控,则调控力度会被低估。(4)我国在货币政策调控中显著关注了金融稳定目标,逐渐趋于按照含有金融稳定目标的泰勒规则进行操作,因此将金融稳定目标加入货币政策规则中的研究内容和结论是有效的。

The monetary policy rules that do not take the financial stability target into account ignore the potential risk accumulation in the excesses financial prosperity under stable prices.On the basis of the two monetary policy target variables that are inflation and output respectively,it introduces financial stability in exponential form into the monetary policy targets and studies the characteristics of Taylor rule that includes financial stability target.The following empirical results have been found：firstly,financial stability and output can communicate smoothly in the monetary policy while inflation has no smooth transmission in the monetary policy;secondly,in the economic environment with high inflation,financial stability has a significant influence on interest rates,and the central bank has more focus on financial stability target;and at this state,the expansion of the output gap has greater effect on interest rates compared with the low inflation;furthermore,interest rates need to be more responsive to the deflation;thirdly,if monetary policy rule that does not include financial stability target is regarded as the reference rule of macroeconomic regulation,the effects of monetary policy regulation is underestimated;fourthly,in monetary policy regulation,China significantly focuses on financial stability target,and China＇s macro-control gradually tends to be adjusted in accordance with Taylor rule containing financial stability,so the research content and conclusions concerning the introduction of financial stability target into the monetary policy rules are effective.