高阶结关系、贸易网络演化与金融危机

Higher-order Ties,Trade Web Evolution,and Financial Crisis

2008-2009年国际贸易的急剧衰退究竟是金融危机的结果,还是贸易体系在危机前就已积累的内在失衡?对这一问题的解答,有助于我们更为全面地了解金融危机的成因以及隐藏于贸易体系中的金融危机预警信号。文章利用贸易网络分析等方法,探讨了贸易网络演化对金融危机的早期预警作用,以及这一预警作用产生的根源,从而揭示了贸易网络演化与金融危机之间的深层关系。研究发现:(1)某些贸易网络结构的变化确实是金融危机的早期信号,而且这种变化也是影响危机的重要因素。(2)贸易网络演化对金融危机的预警作用与贸易收益不平衡有关,而失衡风险的不断累积最终会导向金融危机。(3)金融危机周期与重要贸易体之间的收益失衡程度存在对应关系,并且金融危机对具有劣势收益的贸易体更易造成冲击。上述结论说明,分析贸易网络结构的变化可以成为金融危机预警的新工具,且其变化所反映的贸易失衡也为预判国际贸易发展趋势以及优化贸易政策提供了参考。

Was the sharp decline in international trade between 2008 and 2009the result of the financial crisis,or was the trade system inherently unbalanced before the crisis？The answer to this question helps us to comprehensively understand the causes of the financial crisis,and warning signals of the financial crisis hidden in the trading system.By using the methods like trade network analysis,this paper detects the early warning role of trade web evolution in the financial crisis and the causes resulting in the early warning role,thereby revealing the deep relationship between trade web evolution and the financial crisis.It comes to the following results：firstly,changes in trade network structure actually foreshadow early signals of the financial crisis,and these changes are also an important factor affecting the crisis;secondly,the warning role of trade web evolution in the financial crisis is related with the unbalanced trade gains,and continuous accumulation of imbalance risk eventually leads to the financial crisis;thirdly,the financial crisis cycle has corresponding relationship with the trade imbalance between important trade bodies,and the trade bodies with the gain disadvantages are more vulnerable to the financial crisis.The results show the changes in the trade network structure can become the new tool for early warning of the financial crisis.At the same time,regulators can predict international trade development trend and optimize trade policy preferably by exploring the trade imbalance reflected in the changes in the trade network structure.