敏感领域社会预测的“决策—参谋困境”及其破解

The "Bureaucratic Dilemma" and Its solutions of Social Prediction in the Sensitive Field

仿真模拟是预测的前沿方法和技术,但是由于某种保密和统计制度的限制,预测者得不到所需要的数据或真实的数据,那么其"仿真"也就成了"仿假",即使预测方法再先进,其结果也必然荒谬。现代预测作为一种"科学+艺术"的工作,需要具有远见卓识的领导者和专业预测工作者合作完成。因为在较大面积信息盲区存在的情况下,其未知空间只能靠领导者的经验和直觉来弥补,但多数领导者对复杂的预测技术往往一无所知,而专业预测者又缺乏必要的情报信息和经验来源。这种来自长官和僚属双边的缺憾常常致使预测工作陷入困境,对此我们称之为"决策—参与困境"。这一困境在社会预测的敏感领域尤其如此。

Analogue simulation is a forefront of predictive methods and techniques, but if forecasters cannot get the required data or the real data, the ＂simulation＂ will become ＂fake ＂, even if the predictive method is correct. Modern prediction, as a kind of science and art, requires the cooperation of visionary leaders and professional forecasters. For in the case of existing large-area information blind area, the unknown space can only rely on the leader＇s experience and intuition, but most of the leaders are often ignorant to the complex forecasting techniques, and professional forecasters lack necessary information and experience. This shortcoming from both the chief executive and the staff often makes forecasting very difficult. We may call this the ＂bureaucratic dilemma＂. This dilemma is particularly true in the sensitive fields of social prediction.