短时交通流量预测方法

Prediction Method of Short-Time Traffic Flow

短时交通流量是短时交通参数的基础参数之一,其变化规律可直观反映调查路段或区域的交通变化趋势,可为交通出行提供有效的路径选择信息。基于对统计分析模型、人工智能模型、非线性理论、交通模拟、组合预测模型等短时交通流量预测方法特点和应用的分析,鉴于短时交通流量自身的随机波动特性,指出单一的交通参数预测方法很难有效提高预测的精度和效果,而基于组合预测模型的预测方法具有广阔的应用前景和实践意义,并指出短时交通流量预测方法研究领域今后可能的发展趋势。

The short-term traffic flow is one of the basic parameters of short-term traffic parameters,the change pattern can visually reflect the traffic trend in the investigated road section or area, which can supply travelers with efficient road selection information. The characteristics and application of short-term traffic flow prediction methods based on the statistical analysis model, artificial intelligence model, nonlinear theory, traffic simulation and combined prediction model and in view of the random fluctuation characteristics of the short-term traffic flow,this paper points out that the single traffic parameter prediction method is difficult to greatly improve the prediction accuracy and effect,the prediction method based on the combined prediction model is bound to have the broad application foreground and practical significance, and the research field in the short-term traffic flow prediction method is the possible future development trend.