基于GM(1,1)模型的我国网民规模预测研究

Research on the forecast of Internet users in China based on GM(1,1) model

本文基于2012年6月—2016年6月我国网民规模的数据,根据灰色理论建立GM(1,1)模型,来预测我国网民到2018年12月的发展情况。根据此模型得到的预测值与实际值的相对误差较低,表明该预测模型适合我国网民的发展趋势预测研究。

Based on the data of Internet users in China from June 2012 to June 2016,the GM（ 1,1） model was established according to the gray theory to forecast the development of Internet users in China in December 2018. The relative error between the predicted value and the actual value obtained from this model is low,which indicates that the forecasting model is suitable for the prediction of the development trend of Chinese netizens.