当代中国地方政府债务风险管理研究——以广西壮族自治区政府债务信用风险为例

Research on Local Government Debt Risk Management from the Perspective of Preventing and Controlling Financial Risks:A Case Study on Credit Risk of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region

市场经济条件下,随着金融市场和政府行为的日益融合,地方政府债务风险和金融风险的联动关系越来越明显。防控地方政府风险不仅能够促进地方政府收支的合理化,而且可以减弱地方政府债务风险向金融风险转化的风险。文章选取防控金融风险这一视角研究地方政府债务风险管理,并以广西壮族自治区为例,运用KMV模型进行实证分析,从具体机制层面提出了建立政府债务风险双重评估体制、建立有效的风险预警机制和改革金融业的管理体制等建议。

With the increasing integration of financial market and government behavior under the market economy, the linkage between local government debt risk and financial risk is becoming more and more obvious. Preventing local government risks not only can promote the rational development of local government revenue and expenditure, but also can weaken the transformation risk from local government debt risk to financial risk. From the perspective of the prevention and control of financial risk, this paper studies local government debt risk management. By taking Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region as an example and using KMV model to make empirical analysis, the paper puts forward some proposals from specific mechanisms such as establishing dual assessment of government debt risk, establishing effective risk-warning mechanism and reforming financial management system.