大国协调之下的四方会谈——试论朝鲜半岛的安全机制构建的“新”途径

The Four-Party Talks under Great Power Concert——A Tentative Discussion on a New Approach to Security Institution Construction on the Korean Peninsula

自2017年年初至今,朝鲜半岛的局势在一系列事件(诸如金正男遇刺、蒂勒森出访东北亚三国、美韩军演、"萨德"导弹防御系统的部署、新任韩国总统文在寅上任)的综合作用下显得愈发扑朔迷离。另一方面,自1993年第一次朝核危机爆发之后,朝鲜核问题始终没有得到有效的解决,诸如六方会谈的一些区域性的制度构建也并未得到预期的效果。考虑到在东北亚地区建立长久稳定、强制有效的安全制度的必要性和可行性,本文创新性地引入了中国崛起和东北亚地区两极格局的回归作为新的分析框架,并且在文末处提出了一种新的制度建设尝试,即以中美两大国协同为前提,包括朝韩两国在内建立制度化的四方会谈,以消除朝鲜半岛上不断升级的核安全困境。

Since the beginning of 2017,a series of incident occurring inside or outside the Korean Peninsula( say,the assassination of Kim Jong-nam,U. S-R. O. K joint military exercise,Tillerson 's visit to Northeast Asia,the deployment of THAAD and the swore-in of South Korea's new president,Moon Jae-In) have made the status quo even worse. On the other hand,North Korea nuclear issues have not been effectively settled since 1993,when the first North Korea nuclear crisis broke out and the construction of regional institution did not achieve the expected result. Considering the necessity and feasibility of establishing a long-run and efficient security mechanism in Northeast Asia,this paper innovatively introduces China's rise and the return of a new bipolar system in Northeast Asia as analytical framework and proposes an attempt at institution-building. Based on the concept of Sino-U. S. condominium,such scenario proposes a new form of Four-Party Talks which include China,U. S. and two Koreas,aiming to alleviate the nuclear security dilemma on the Korean Peninsula.