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后“仲裁案”时代南海局势峰回路转

Turning Back of the South China Sea Situation in the Post Arbitration Era
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摘要 南海形势峰回路转,主要得益于菲律宾政权更迭、政策调整,中国对"南海仲裁案"强力且有效的反击,以及美尚未准备与中国在南海问题上摊牌。当然,南海局势的平静只是暂时的,中国与南海主要声索国在领土主权、海洋权益上存在着结构性矛盾,难以妥善解决;美国霸权心态依旧,遏华之心不死,在南海问题上不会善罢甘休;日、澳、印等域外国家会继续煽风点火,介入南海事务,牵制中国。未来一段时间南海整体形势虽相对稳定,但实地争夺动作从未停歇,法律斗争凸显,域内外联动共同对华局面依旧,不排除会出现以南海问题为核心的"南海、东海和台海三海联动常态化",进而形成美西方国家集体反应的机制化,其结果必然是南海问题将会呈现摩擦不断、高潮迭起的动荡局面。 The turning back of South China Sea situation to normal routine is mainly due to the Philippines regime change and its following policy adjustment,Chinese powerful counterattack to the so-called South China Sea Arbitration lawsuit,and the US not being ready for a showdown with China on the South China Sea issues. Of course,the peace in South China Sea dispute is temporary,the structural contradictions between China and other South China Sea main claimants still exist in territorial sovereignty and marine rights and interests,and it's not easy to solve properly. America 's will to maintain the dominant power and to contain China will not stop,and it will not let the SCS dispute to go at that. Outside countries,like Japan,Australia and India will keep on fanning up the flames of trouble,intervening in SCS disputes,to hamper China. The South China Sea situation will keep stable relatively for the coming future,yet field battling will not stop,legal fighting will loom larger,China will still face the joint coercive efforts of internal and external countries. There may be a normalization of Tri-Sea joint efforts of disputes in the South China Sea,East China Sea,and Taiwan Strait,with South China Sea dispute as the core. That may cause the normalization of collective response of US and other western countries,resulting in long time turmoil in South China Sea with continuing frictions to occur repeatedly.
作者 杨泽军
出处 《亚太安全与海洋研究》 2017年第5期74-90,130-131,共17页 Asia-Pacific Security and Maritime Affairs
关键词 南海局势 后仲裁案时代 发展变化 South China Sea situation post arbitration era development and change
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