2015年湖南省毒蕈中毒的空间分布特征及影响因素

Analysis of spatiotemporal patterns and influential factors for mushroom poisoning in Hunan Province in 2015

目的:探讨湖南省毒蕈中毒的空间分布及其影响因素,为科学防控毒蕈中毒提供依据。方法:收集2015年湖南省122个区(县)的毒蕈中毒监测数据,利用Arc GIS10.2软件建立病例地理信息数据库,采用Open Geo Da软件进行空间自相关分析和空间回归分析。结果:2015年湖南省毒蕈中毒报告发病率2.94/10万,病死率0.56%。全局空间自相关Moran's I值为0.315(P<0.05),提示湖南省毒蕈中毒发病存在空间聚集性;局部空间自相关结果显示,毒蕈中毒发病热点区域为宁乡县、湘潭县、邵阳县、零陵区、嘉禾县、临武县等。冷点区域为古丈县、鹤城区、鼎城区、岳阳县等。空间回归分析显示,毒蕈中毒发病情况与年平均温度(Z=2.145,P=0.032)、人均卫生机构数(Z=2.352,P=0.019)、中学生人数(Z=4.309,P<0.001)呈正相关,与中学教职工人数(Z=–2.626,P=0.009)呈负相关。结论:湖南省毒蕈中毒发病存在空间聚集性,发病主要集中在湖南省中部和南部地区,北部地区发病率较低。年平均温度、中学生人数在空间层面上对毒蕈中毒发病具有一定程度的正向影响作用。

Objective： To understand the spatial distribution of mushroom poisoning in Hunan Province and its influential factors, and to provide the evidence for control of the mushroom poisoning. Methods： The surveillance data for mushroom poisoning cases from 122 counties in Hunan Province in 2015 were collected. Based on geographical information system database, spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatial regression analysis （via OpenGeoDa） was conducted. Results： The incidence of mushroom poisoning in Hunan Province in 2015 was 2.94/100 000.Global Moran＇s I values was 0.315 （P〈0.05）. Local spatial autocorrelation analysis indicated that Ningxiang, Xiangtan, Shaoyang, Lingling, Jiahe, and Linwu districts et al were ＂positive hotspot＂ regions. Guzhang, Hecheng, Dingcheng, Yueyang districts et al were ＂negative hotspot＂ regions. Spatial regression analysis revealed that the reported incidence of mushroom poisoning was positively correlated with the annual average temperate （Z=2.145, P=0.032）, the number of health care institutions per capita （Z=2.352, P=0.019）, and the number of students enrollment in secondary schools （Z=4.309, P〈0.001）. It was negatively associated with the number of school staff and workers of secondary schools （Z=-2.626, P=0.009）. Conclusion： The spatial distribution of mushroom poisoning cases in Hunan Province in 2015 is highly clustered. Mushroom poisoning cases are more prevalent in the middle and southern regions and less prevalent in the northern areas of the province. The annual average temperate and the number of students enrollment in secondary schools demonstrate a certain positive influence on the distribution of mushroom poisoning in Hunan.