劳动力成本上升与中国制造业空间转移

The Rising Labor Costs and Spatial Restructure of Chinese Manufacturing

采用中国规模以上工业企业数据,建立面板数据回归模型,研究了劳动力成本上升对制造业空间转移的影响,主要有以下研究结论:(1)劳动力成本提升已成为推动中国制造业空间转移的重要影响因素。2004年以前发达地区相对较高的工资水平并未影响到产业集聚,但是2004年以后较高的工资水平开始推动制造业企业向工资水平较低的地区迁移,但出口型企业与满足国内市场需求的制造业企业体现出了不同的转移路线。(2)2004年以前中国制造业总体上不断向长三角、珠三角以及山东半岛等地区集中,2004年以后制造业开始向沿海相对较为落后的江苏北部、山东中西部以及中国中西部地区迁移,满足国内市场需求的制造业企业是向中西部地区迁移的主体,出口型企业由长三角和珠三角向东部地区的山东半岛和辽东半岛等交通条件较好的地区迁移。(3)东部地区产业升级缓慢。尽管产业向外转移,但东部沿海地区的产业尤其是满足国内市场需求的制造业企业仍然以劳动力驱动为主,资本驱动的特征并不明显。但出口型企业的发展率先表现出了资本驱动的特征。

The spatial evolution of manufacturing is one of the focuses of economic geographers. Using Chi- nese industrial enterprises data and panel data regression model, this article investigates the effect of labor mar- ket transition on the spatial transfer of Chinese manufacturing. The main conclusions are as follows： firstly, the rising labor cost has becoming a key factor that has an influence on the spatial transfer of Chinese manufactur- ing. The industrial agglomeration in developed area was not affected by the relatively high labor costs before 2004, but after 2004, the rising labor cost in developed area drove enterprises, no matter export-oriented enter- prises or enterprises that served domestic marked, to migrate to relatively less developed areas with relatively low labor costs. Secondly, the flying geese pattern has occurred in China. Before 2004, China＇s manufacturing continuously agglomerated to the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, Shandong Peninsula and other ar- eas. However, after 2004, the manufacturing enterprises began to migrate to less developed area, such as the northern Jiangsu, the middle and western Shandong and the middle and western regions in China. Enterprises that met the domestic market mainly migrated to the central and westem China, while export-oriented enter- prises mainly migrated from the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta to Shandong Peninsula, Lia- odong Peninsula and other areas with convenient transportation. Lastly, the eastern area showed little tendency of industrial upgrading. The development of enterprises, especially enterprises that met domestic market was still labor cost-driven. However, the development of exported-oriented enterprises showed a tendency of capi- tal-driven.