耕地生产力与粮食安全耦合关系与趋势分析——以河南省为例

Coupling Relationship and Trend of Cultivated Land Productivity and Food Security: A Case Study of Henan Province

粮食是社会经济发展的重要保障。运用耕地、粮食安全测度模型对2005~2014年河南省粮食安全状况进行评估。结果表明:(1)2005~2014年,农民种粮积极性上升10%,耕地压力指数下降71%,农民经济收益上升13%,耕地重心向西南移动。(2)不同指标对耕地生产力的贡献率具有差异性。2005~2009年粮种比对耕地生产力的贡献率最大,2010~2014年贡献率发生转移,粮食播种面积单位产量对耕地生产力的贡献率最大;10 a间,粮种比的贡献(69.77%)相对粮食单产的贡献(39.28%)更能促进河南省耕地生产力的提高。(3)耕地压力受到自然、社会等多方面因素影响。各指标间相关关系较强,种粮积极性与农民耕地保护能力的二者呈现负相关关系。

Food is the important guarantee of the social and economic development. By taking the Henan Prov- ince agricultural data （2014-2015） as the indicator layer, this article assessed the food security in Henan Prov- ince by using standard cultivated land coefficient model, food resources carrying capacity, cultivated land pres- sure index model and food safety driving force model. The results showed that： 1） From 2005 to 2014, the overall cultivated land productivity increased steadily, the farmers＇ enthusiasm for growing grain increased by 10% in study area, the pressure index of cultivated land decreased by 71%, the farmers＇ income increased by 13%, and the gravity center of the cultivated land showed a southwest movement trend. It＇ s that cultivated land resource in 10 years appeared in the southwest area of cultivated land resource is higher than the north- east, the southwestern cities of cultivated land resources protection weak in northwestern region of Henan Province; 2） Between 2005 and 2009, the contribution rate of planting ratio of grain to the arable land produc- tivity in Henan Province was 80.61%; In 2010-2014, contribution rate extreme value transferred to grain yield per unit, and its contribution rate was 100.37%; Compared with grain yield per unit area, planting ratio of grain had a leading role in improving the productivity of cultivated land in Henan Province. In addition, overall situ- ation of cultivated land productivity will increase steadily, and cultivated land pressure coefficient and stan- dard has obvious negative correlation between cultivated land coefficient, cultivated land pressure index space distribution in northern and eastern pressure is low, cultivated land pressure decrease gradually from west to east; 3） Fertilizer input, the farmers＇ enthusiasm for growing grain and protection ability of cultivated land had a strong coupling relationship with food security; However, the farmers＇ enthusiasm for growing grain and pro- tection ability of cultivated land presented a negative correlation. High cultivated land pressure index of Zheng- zhou and Sanmenxia is the result of social and economic elements and natural geographical environment. In terms of Zhengzhou, the limited urban area within the scope of regional economic development, get more eco- nomic benefit, is the important foothold of its development. In terms of unit efficiency, the unit of second and third industry output value is much higher than the first industry, cultivated land become one of main way to obtain higher economic benefits. The behavior of lead to Zhengzhou City since 2005 cultivated land pressure index is high, and the food security situation showed a trend of deterioration.