IPCC情景下中国大陆区域排放清单预测

THE EMISSION INVENTORIES PREDICTION IN CHINA MAINLAND UNDER IPCC SCENARIOS

参考IPCC情景设计方法,采用IPAT方程预测未来不同经济社会发展情景(A1B、A2及B1情景)下中国大陆区域2020,2050年能源消耗量,结合分部门、分燃料的排放因子,得到大陆区域2020,2050年SO_2、NO_x排放清单。全球共同发展情景(A1B情景)下SO_2、NO_x排放量最大,其次为经济发展速度较慢的区域发展情景(A2情景),全球可持续发展情景(B1情景)污染排放量最低。结果表明:火力发电、工业及交通运输业对SO_2、NO_x排放量贡献最大,在未来几十年仍是污染控制的关键部门。

Three scenarios were designed according to IPCC（ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change） method,and the energy consumption of China mainland in 2020 and 2050 under different economic development scenarios（ A1 B,A2 and B1scenarios） were predicted by IPAT equation,SO2 and NOxemission inventory of China were established based on the emission factors of different sectors and different fuel types. The emission of SO2 and NOxwere the highest under the A1 B scenario,followed by A2 scenario of which the economic development was relatively slow,and B1 scenario had the lowest pollution emissions. The result shows that： Thermal power,industry and transportation were the main sources of SO2 and NOxemission,thus they were the key sectors of pollution control in the coming decades.