中国工业TFP的新产品动能变化研究

On the Driving Force of New Products on TFP in Chinese Manufacturing

本文在运用全局曼奎斯特(Malmquist)生产率指数测算新产品全要素生产率及其分组技术效率和技术进步的基础上,首次对2001—2010年中国大中型工业行业TFP的新产品动能变化及其数量效应变化和效率效应变化进行研究。研究结果表明:中国工业新产品全要素生产率主要来自于技术进步,技术效率的作用很小;新产品全要素生产率低于TFP,中国工业TFP主要依靠老产品驱动;整体上中国工业TFP的新产品动能增长基本停滞;2008年后,TFP新产品动能的数量效应和效率效应双双提升,技术进步的新产品动能实现了较快增长,技术效率的新产品动能有所下降;企业规模、非国有企业占比对于TFP的新产品动能增长没有显著影响,FDI有抑制作用,出口和R&D投入则有促进作用。

Many scholars use total factor productivity （TFP）, the core variable for estimating the mode of economic growth, to judge the sustainability of economic growth patterns （ Solow, 1957 ; Krugrman, 1994; Zhang, 2002; Young, 2003; Hu, 2003; Zheng et al., 2005）. However, a country can achieve higher TFP growth in the short term through policy reforms, factor replacement, and other efficiency improvements, although these changes have only one-off level effects. With a gradually weakened growth effect, TFP growth also declines. In the long term, with the economic development of a country, the technology gap between domestic and foreign industries gradually narrows; thus, TFP growth mainly depends on independent innovation （Lin et al., 2007; Zheng, 2008）. Establishing the link between innovation and TFP from the new product＇s perspective, this study considers the driving force of new products on TFP in Chinese manufacturing in recent years, based on how new product contributions have changed TFP. The driving force of a new product on TFP is composed of the change in quantitative effect, which refers to the ratio of new product value to total industrial output value, and the change in efficiency effect, which refers to the ratio of new product TFP to TFP. The ~um of the changes of these two effects is equal to the change in the driving force of the new product on TFP. The difficulty to estimate the driving force of the new product on TFP resides in the estimation of the new product TFP. Based on the new product technical efficiency approach （Zhang ＆ Shi, 2011 ）, this study further considers the dynamics of new product TFP. Estimating the new Product Orientation Malmquist Index by the directional distance function proves to be infeasible, as the output is divided into new and old products. Referencing the Global Malmquist-Luenberger Index （Oh, 2010）, this study establishes a new Product Orientation Global Malmquist Index to estimate the change in new product TFP, its technical efficiency, and its technological progress. This study also considers the changes in the driving force of the new product, its quantitative effects, and its effect on the efficiency of TFP in Chinese large and medium-sized industries between 2001 and 2010. The results show that the new product TFP in Chinese manufacturing comes mainly from technological progress, and that the role of technical efficiency is very small. The new product TFP is lower than TFP, and the TFP of Chinese manufacturing is mainly driven by old products. In short, the growth of new product driving force on TFP in Chinese manufacturing is almost stagnant. After 2008, both quantitative and productivity effects of new product driving force on TFP improved. The new product driving force for technical progress has achieved a faster growth, but the new product driving force for technical efficiency has declined. Analysis of the factors that affect the new product driving force reveals that enterprise size and non-state-owned enterprises do not significantly affect its growth, while FDI has a negative effect and exports and R＆D both have positive effects. Based on these results, the following suggestions are provided. Future research may improve the evaluation system of scientific research achievements and strengthen the production management of new products. Additionally, blindly pursuing the rapid growth of GDP should be avoided, as appropriate slowdown may help the transformation from an old driving force into a new one. Attention should be given to strengthening the connotative new product growth, enhancing its driving force, strengthening the support to private enterprises and especially innovative private enterprises, and encouraging the introduction of innovation-oriented FDI. Enterprises should also improve their innovative efficiency; increase their R＆D investment and support for talent, capital, and technology; strengthen and improve their scientific research management; and enhance their innovative efficiency.