一次飞机积冰过程分析及不同预报方法的准确性对比

An Analysis of Aircraft Icing and Comparison of Different Forecasting Methods

利用Micaps地面、高空资料及来自NCEP/NCAR逐6小时再分析资料,分析2015年11月23日飞机增雨作业过程中出现的飞机积冰过程,并结合河南2015-2016年飞机积冰事例,对比三种积冰判别法的准确性。结果表明:形成此次积冰过程的天气背景是低槽冷锋;充足的水汽和适宜的温度有利于积冰的形成;国际民航组织推荐的飞机积冰判别指数可以较好反映积冰发生区域及强度,假霜点判别法预报程度偏重、分级不明显,温湿度经验判断法效果最差。

Based on Micaps surface and upper air data as well as every 6h NCEP/ NCAR reanalysis data, the aircraft icing was analyzed that occurred during the operation of the aircraft on November 23,2015. The reports of icing conditions in Henan province in 2015 and 2016 were collected to judge the accuracy of the three kinds of ice accretion methods. The results show that the low trough and cold front is the main system of this aircraft icing. The adequate moisture and the suitable temperature are favorable for the formation of icing. The aircraft icing index recommended by ICAO is a good indicator of the ice accretion area and intensity ; the false frost point discrimination method is more sensitive to the forecast degree and not obvious in classification ; the effect of the temperature and humidity experience judgment method is the worst.