金融杠杆、金融制度与经济增长——理论及日本的经验分析

Financial Leverage,Financial System and Economic Growth——Theory and Empirical Analysis to Japan

通过在生产函数中加入金融杠杆风险控制函数,分析了企业金融杠杆调整原因、路径及对经济增长的影响,并利用日本的发展经验进行了检验。本文主要研究结论有:(1)风险事件的发生迫使企业降杠杆,其路径决定于财务杠杆风险对风险事件的敏感性与持续性,降杠杆可能导致资本边际收益大于边际成本时企业不愿增加投资,陷入资产负债表衰退;(2)金融制度通过影响资产定价、金融风险在企业与国家之间承担方式影响企业金融杠杆决策;(3)在资产收益率下降的情况下,政府加杠杆与企业减杠杆过程同时存在,公共支出对私人支出形成挤出效应,降杠杆的核心在于提高资产收益率。目前中国处于降杠杆周期,本文的研究有一定的现实意义。

By adding risk constraint to production function, this paper study the reasons, paths and effects of financial leverage to economy growth, and we make an empirical test using the development experience of Japan. The main conclusions are as follows： （1）The occurrence of risk events forcing companies to reduce financial leverage, its path depends on the sensitivity and persistence of financial leverage to risk events, reducing leverage may lead to the enter- prise stop investing before the marginal profit of capital larger than marginal cost; （2）The financial system influences the financial leverage decision of enterprise through pricing of assets and financial risks Sharing between government and enterprises; （3）In the case of declining asset returns, the public expenditure has a crowding out effect on private expenditure, and the core of the leverage reduction is to improve the asset yield. At present, China is in the period of declining leverage, the research of this paper has certain practical significance.