新常态下中国通货膨胀问题研究

Research on Inflation in China Under New Normal Conditions

文章使用我国1997Q1至2015Q2的季度数据,通过长期协整检验和非对称性效应检验,证实变量之间存在协整关系,并得出FDI、热钱和GDP增长率对我国通货膨胀率均存在非对称效应的结论。此外,还对传统的ARDL与基于非线性假设的NARDL进行了比较,并利用修正后的NARDL模型刻画出我国通胀率与FDI净流入量和经济增长速度间的非线性关系。

This paper employs Chinese quarterly data from 1997 Q1 to 2015 Q2 and conducts a long-term co-integration test and asymmetrie effect test, only to verify that co-integration relationship exists between variables. The paper derives a conclu- sion that FDI, hot money and GDP growth have asymmetric impacts on Chinese inflation rate. Besides, the paper also compares the traditional ARDL with NARDL based on nonlinear hypothesis, and utilizes the modified NARDL model to describe the nonlinear relationship between Chinese inflation rate, FDI net inflow weight and economic growth rate.