区域崩塌和滑坡规模参数频率分布研究——以秦巴山地宁强县为例

Research on Scale Parameter Frequency Distribution of Regional Collapse and Landslide in Ningqiang County

基于假设提出崩塌和滑坡灾害长、宽和厚等规模参数频率分布呈负指数关系,并通过变换负指数关系提出面积和体积等规模参数频率分布简单而有效的计算公式。以秦巴山区宁强县为例,对所提出的公式进行验证。结果表明:(1)特大型和巨型滑坡、崩塌在控制滑坡、崩塌总面积和总体积中起着重要的作用;(2)崩塌、滑坡规模参数(长、宽和厚)频率分布符合更简单的指数关系,且用指数关系拟合的规模参数频率曲线不会产生"偏转效应",地质灾害参数不仅符合对数正态分布(Normal),而且符合对数韦伯(Weibull)和Logistic分布;(3)对于崩塌和滑坡面积与体积规模参数,其实质是长、宽和厚等参数的平方级和立方级,因此,对于其规模参数频率分布求解的一个简单的方法是对面积和体积开平方根和立方根后再用指数分布对其拟合,事实证明其确实呈现一种指数分布;(4)文中所提出的规模参数频率负指数分布,简捷而有效,便于推广应用。

On the assumption that size distribution of landslide and collapse about length,width,and thickness fit negative exponential distribution,this paper put forward the formula about them. Further through modifying the formula of size distribution of length,width and thickness,the paper put forward the formula of size distribution of area and volume. At last,taking Ningqiang County as an example to verify the formula. The result showed that：（1）Very large and giant landslide and collapse play an important role in controlling their area and volume;（2）The frequency distribution of collapse and landslide＇s scale parameters conforms to a exponential function,and the curve fitted by exponential function does not generate deflection effect. Geological hazard parameters not only conforms to logarithmic Normal distribution（ Normal）,but conforms to logarithmic Weibull and Logistic distribution.（3）For the size parameters of area and volume of landslide,its essence is the parameters such as length,width,and thickness of square and cube,therefore,a simple way to solve the size distribution of the area and volume was fitted after open square root and cube root distribution. It showed that they meet negative exponential distribution,and the fitting effect is good.（4）Negative exponential distribution of scale parameter frequency that we proposed is so simple and effective that it is convenient for popularization and application.