基于事故数据分析推导的全国及化工行业可接受风险标准基准值研究

Study on standard reference values of acceptable risk criteria for nation and chemical industry based on accident data analysis and derivation

为了探索行业风险可接受现状,印证已颁布的可接受风险标准中标准基准值选取的可行性,基于可接受风险标准理论,通过搜集、分析及估算全国及化工行业最近10 a的基础事故数据,采用平均个人风险值法(AIR)和事故累计概率-死亡人数曲线(FN曲线)法的运算思想,确定了全国及化工行业的死亡、受伤及职业病风险个人/社会可接受标准基准值,并通过数据范围的选择将其分为宽松型、通用型及严格型3种不同"严格"程度的基准值以备不同条件下选用。研究结果表明:死亡标准基准值通过与已颁布的标准基准值进行对比后发现2者均处于同一量级(10^(-4)),印证了彼此的可行性,受伤及职业病标准基准值可为后期该领域的研究提供参考。

To explore the current status of industrial acceptable risk,and verify the feasibility of the standard reference value selected in the issued standard of acceptable risk,based on the theory of acceptable risk criteria,through collecting,analyzing and estimating the basic accident data of the nation and chemical industry in the last 10 years,the standard reference values of individual and societal acceptable criteria for the death,injury and occupational disease risk of the nation and chemical industry were determined by using the operational ideas of the average individual risk value method（ AIR） and the curve of accident cumulative probability against death toll（ FN curve） method,and the standard reference values were divided into three types with different ＂ strict＂ degree,including loose type,general type and strict type,through the selection of data range for the use under different conditions. The results showed that the standard reference value of death was in the same order of magnitude（ 10^（-4）） with the issued standard reference value,which verified the feasibility of each other. The standard reference values of injury and occupational disease can provide reference for the later research in this field.