货币国际化、贸易和汇率——基于日元的实证研究

Currency Internationalization, Trade and Exchange Rate——Based on the Empirical Research of Yen

选用结构向量自回归模型对货币国际化和该国贸易发展状况及汇率的相关性进行了计量研究,并以日元国际化为例,从实证方面分析货币国际化对该国贸易和汇率的影响。实证研究表明:在短期内,货币国际化将改善本国贸易条件状况;在长期内,货币国际化对于本国贸易条件改善的影响将逐渐消失,货币国际化对本国汇率影响较大,容易导致本国货币在一段时期内出现大幅度升值或贬值。从长期来看,汇率波动的现象很大程度上可以由货币国际化程度进行解释。基于实证研究结果,进一步为人民币国际化背景下对于本国贸易发展状况和汇率变动情况的分析提出了相关建议。

It is of great significance to study how currency internationalization can impact on economic development. In this paper,the correlation between currency internationalization and trade and exchange rate was investigated by applying Structural Vector Auto-Regression（SVAR） model. In more detail, we qualitatively and quantitatively analyzed the mutual mechanism between internationalization of the yen and Japanese trade and exchange rate. The results show that currency internationalization has following effects.Firstly, the internationalization of the currency will improve the status of domestic trade in short term and this impact will gradually disappear in long term. Secondly, the degree of currency internationalization plays a leading role for changing the trade situation whether in the short or long term. Lastly but not least importantly, currency internationalization has a significant impact on its exchange rate, which can easily lead to a substantial appreciation or devaluation of its currency for a period of time. In the long run, exchange rate fluctuation can be explained by the degree of internationalization of the currency to a large extent.Collectively, these conclusions may provide a reference for analyzing Chinese trade and exchange rate development under the background of the internationalization of RMB and some related suggestions were explicitly deduced from these conclusions.