基于路径分析模型探讨气象因素对厦门市手足口病的影响

Analysis on impact of meteorological factors on incidence of hand,foot and mouth disease based on path analysis model in Xiamen City

目的探讨气象因素对厦门市手足口病发病的影响。方法采用路径分析模型研究气象因素和肠道病毒活跃程度等因素对手足口病发病的直接作用和间接作用,采用最大似然法对模型参数进行估计和检验,通过绝对适配指标、相对适配指标和简效适配对模型进行评价和修正。结果气象因素对手足口病的发病影响滞后效应在5 d左右,手足口病受到平均相对湿度、大型蒸发量、平均气压、肠道病毒活跃程度和是否长假期的直接作用,受到平均气温、是否降水、大型蒸发量、平均水汽压、平均相对湿度、平均气压及最大风速风向的间接作用,与平均风速无统计学关联。结论气象因素与手足口病的发生关系密切,路径分析模型可以较好的验证两者之间的关系。

Objective To investigate the impact of meteorological factors on the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease（HFMD） in Xiamen City. Methods Path analysis model was used to analyze the direct and indirect effects of me- teorological factors and intestinal virus activity on the incidence of HFMD. The Path parameters were estimated and tested by using the maximum likelihood method. The model was evaluated and modified by absolute indices, relative indices and parsimony indices. Results Meteorological factors had lag effect on the incidence of HFMD in about 5 days. Relative hu- midity, large evaporation, atmospheric pressure, intestinal virus activity and long vacation directly affect the incidence of HFMD, whereas temperature, precipitation, large evaporation, water vapor pressure, relative humidity, air pressure, maximum wind speed and wind direction had indirect effect on that. There was no significant correlation between wind speed and the incidence of HFMD. Conclusions Meteorological factors are closely related to the HFMD, the path analysis model can verify their relationship.