进入新常态后我国地方经济增长分化的理论解释

Theoretical Explanation of Local Economic Growth Differentiation after Entering New Normality

进入"新常态"后,我国地方经济出现了严重的分化现象,一些省市保持着稳定的中高速发展,而另一些地区则出现了负增长。本文基于人均GDP和人均财政收入双视角,比较分析"新常态"后我国地方经济分化的现状和特征,探索形成地方经济增长分化局面的双向内生动力源。研究认为,制度初始架构构成演化路径生成机制的内在支撑,技术层面的差异识别与缓慢扩散多向度约束了科技突破与结构变迁的交互力量,经济系统内的创新效应路径分流与动力重塑机制弱化组合引起了地方经济增长趋势分岔。为了实现地方经济的协调发展,一方面要通过构建包容性制度环境,破除传统科技范式,以解除规模报酬递减结构负锁定;另一方面,要通过提高地方经济增长质量,消解经济增长路径依赖性低迷,以增强地方经济对新常态的适应性。

Since entering the ＂new normal＂, China＇s local economy has experienced a serious differentiation. Some prov- inces and cities maintain a stable middle to high development speed, however, in other areas there exists a negative growth. Based on the per capita GDP and per capita fiscal revenue, this paper analyzes the status and characteristics of local economic differentiation after＂new normal＂, explores the two-way endogenous motivation to formation of local economic growth differentia- tion. It is concluded that the initial structure of the system constitutes the inherent support of the evolution mechanism, differen- tial identification and slow diffusion in technical level muti-dimensional restrict the interaction force of the technological break- throughs and structural changes, the combination of innovation effect path shunt and dynamic remodeling mechanism weakening within the economic system leads to a bifurcation of local economic growth trends. In order to achieve the coordinated develop- ment of local economy, on the one hand, lifting the negative lock of diminishing returns to scale structure through the construc- tion of inclusive institutional environment, getting rid of the traditional science and technology paradigm. On the other hand, en- hancing the adaptation of local economy to the new normal through improving the quality of local economic growth and getting rid of economic downturn with growth path dependence.