基于LMDI-Attribution的山西省碳排放强度分析

Analysis of Carbon Emissions Intensity of Shanxi Province based on LMDI-Attribution Method

运用LMDI-Attribution方法对山西省2005~2014年间碳排放强度进行了分解及归因分析,并将传统的LMDI模型扩展到产业部门和居民生活两部分,量化五大行业对影响效应变化的贡献率。结果表明,山西省碳排放强度呈下降趋势,2014年万元生产值碳排放强度比2005年减少了2.603 29 t。其中,影响其变化的3个主要因素是经济规模、能源强度和居民能源消费结构;农业、工业、建筑业、交通业、商业5个行业对能源强度效应和产业结构效应均有抑制碳排放强度增长作用;其中,工业是能源结构、能源强度和产业结构3个效应变化的最主要因素,而低耗能的农业、交通业、商业的影响力微弱。总体而言,工业是山西省未来减排最需要关注的部门,优化产业结构和能源结构,大力发展清洁能源是山西省绿色低碳发展的最佳途径。

The carbon emissions of Shanxi Province was calculated and analysised from 2005 to 2014 by using LMDI-Attribution method. LMDI method is extended to the industrial and household sectors. Then the contribution rate of five main industries from effect perspective is quantifucated. Results show that there is a downward trend of carbon intensity. Actually compared with 2005 it has decreased 2.603 29 ton per ten thousand yuan of the output. And economy of scale,energy intensity and residents＇ consumption structure are the main factors effecting the trend. There are five main industry which are agricultural, industrial,the construction industry, transportation and business all having negative effect of growth of carbon intensity on energy intensity effect and industry structure effect, in which industrial is the main fator that cause the change of energy structure, energy intensity and industry structure and there is a little effect of agricultural, transportation and business which consume low energy. Besides, the industy of Shanxi Province should be paid more attention in emission reduction in the future. Optimizing industry structure and energy structure and striving to develop clean energy are the best way in which green and low-carbon development can be put into effect ideally.