基于STIRPAT模型的昌吉市建设用地空间布局及社会经济驱动力分析

Spatial Distribution of Construction Land in Changji and Analysis of Socio-economic Driving Force——Based on STIRPAT Model

随着城乡建设用地空间扩展与土地资源局限性矛盾的日益突出,开展城乡建设用地布局优化研究显得极为重要。针对新疆昌吉市建设用地扩展现状,利用建设用地审批矢量数据,运用GIS统计分析功能和空间分析功能,对昌吉市建设用地扩展数量特点及空间分布特征进行分析,并在此基础上利用STIRPAT模型对建设用地扩展的社会经济驱动因子进行定量分析。结果表明,(1)昌吉市建设用地扩展速度与强度在2010-2011年呈现增加趋势,2011-2015年呈现下降趋势;(2)建设用地扩展的空间分析得出,四、五、六及十方向扇区建设用地发展指向性较突出,表明建设用地发展空间布局的区域指向性特征较明显;(3)国内生产总值是建设用地扩展的最主要驱动因子,全社会固定资产投资、城镇人均可支配收入、农牧民人均纯收入、第二产业贡献率与建设用地的扩展也有明显的相关性。研究表明,采用等扇分析方法与STIRPAT评价模型可以清晰刻画出不同扇区建设用地变化规律及其与各驱动因子间相互契合程度,对未来较好地实现土地资源集约优化利用和经济可持续发展有一定的指导意义。

With increa singly prominent contradiction between the spatial expansion of urban-rural construction land and the limitation of land resources, the layout optimization of urban-rural construction land is extremely important. According to the present expansion situation of urban-rural construction land in Changji city of Xinjiang, with application of the construction land approval vector data, and using the statistical analysis and spatial analysis function of GIS, the quantity characteristics and spatial distribution features of construction land expansion in Changji were analyzed, and on this basis an quantitative analysis was made on the socio-economic driving forces of the construction land expansion with STIRPAT model. The results showed that：（1）the expansion speed and strength of construction land in Changji city increased in 2010-2011 and decreased in 2011-2015.（2） the spatial analysis of construction land expansion concluded that the construction land in four, five, six and 10 sectors had prominent development directivity, indicating obvious regional directional features for developing spatial layout of construction land.（3） GDP was the main driver of construction land expansion, the total fixed asset investment,urban per capita disposable income, per capita net income of farmers and herdsmen, contribution rate of the second industry had significant correlation with the construction land expansion. Studies concluded that the use of fans analytical method and STIRPAT evaluation model clearly depicted the mutual matching degree between the variation rule of construction land in different sectors and each driving force, the conclusion would be instructive for better realizing the intensified and optimized use of land resources, and the economic sustainable development.