青藏高原自然灾害发育现状与未来关注的科学问题

Natural Hazards in Tibetan Plateau and Key Issue for Feature Research

青藏高原构造隆升强烈、地形地貌复杂、气候敏感多变,是地震、泥石流、崩塌、滑坡、冰湖溃决、山洪、雪灾、干旱和冻胀融沉等灾害的多发区。受区域地质构造、地形条件、水文气象和人类活动影响,青藏高原自然灾害的分布呈现为沿断裂构造带密集分布、沿深切的高山峡谷区成带状分布、地带性分布、在高强度人类活动区集中分布的特征。灾害活动呈现高强度与高频率、突发性、季节性、准周期性、群发性和链生性的特点。在气候变暖与地壳运动活跃的环境背景下,青藏高原自然灾害的危险性逐渐加剧,灾害风险也会随着人口数量和社会经济水平提升不断增加。进而分析了当前青藏高原自然灾害成灾机理、灾害防治以及风险管理等方面所面临的问题,并在此基础上提出成灾因素变化与灾害发育的区域规律、自然灾害动力学过程与灾变机理、气候变化与地震耦合作用下的巨灾演化规律、青藏高原自然灾害风险评估与风险管理、适宜高寒区特点的监测预警和防治关键技术等未来应该关注的科学技术问题以及需要开展的相应工作。

The Tibetan Plateau, with the features of strong tectonic activities, complex geomorphology, and changing climate, is being highly prone to the occurrence of natural hazards, such as earthquakes, debris flows, glacial lake outburst, torrential floods, landslides, avalanches, snowstorm, and drought. Affected by regional tectonic activities, topography, climatic conditions, and human activities, these hazards are mainly distributed along the fault zones, the deep-incised valleys, and the regions highly disturbed by engineering construction. Moreover, the occurrence of different hazards shows up the characteristics of high frequency, outbreak, seasonality, quasi-periodicity, agminate appearance, and hazard chain. In addition, frequency and scale of mountain hazards are supposed to get higher for the climate wanning and active crustal movement, which increases the risk of disasters. Meanwhile, the increasing density of population and economy will make the situation of vulnerability and risk worse. The current deficiency of the theoretical comprehension, forecasting and prevention technology, protection strategy, and risk management for natural hazards in the Tibetan Plateau has been analyzed and sorted. Furthermore, we propose the topics that are worthy of more attention in the future research, including the change of formative factors and the regional law of hazard formation, dynamic process and mechanism of hazards, evolution of catastrophe caused by the coupling of climate change and earthquake, risk assessment and risk management, monitoring and prevention technology concerning the alpine environment in Tibetan Plateau.