个人投资者参与融资融券交易的概率计量研究

Research on Probability Measurement of Individual Investor's Participating in Margin Trading

利用我国某证券公司个人投资者基本信息以及股票交易数据,采用多元logistic模型,分析了个人投资者的人口统计学特征、财富特征、交易行为特征等对个人投资者参与融资融券交易的概率计量。实证研究发现:个人投资者的人口学特征、财富特征、交易行为特征等指标可被用于投资者参与融资融券的概率计量;年龄越大的投资者、学历越高的投资者参与融资融券交易的概率越大,男性投资者以及职业为个体、文教科卫专业人员、行政企事业单位工人、企事业单位干部的投资者参与融资融券交易的概率更大;总资产越高的个人投资者参与融资融券交易的概率越大;换手率越高的个人投资者参与融资融券交易的概率越大。

By using the individual investors＇ basic information and trade data of a securities company in china,and the Logistic model,the paper analysis the effects of demographic characteristics,wealth characteristics,trading behavior characteristics of individual investors on the choice to participate in margin trading.The empirical study find that： Individual investors＇ demographic characteristics,wealth characteristics,trading behavior characteristics can be used for probability measurement of individual investors participating in margin trading; the probability of older investors and the high educated persons investor participation in margin trading is higher; the male investors,the investors who are sole trade,workers of science,education,culture and hygiene,administrative institutions.Cadres of enterprises and institutions have higher probability of participation in margin trading; the probability of the higher assets investors to participate in margin trading is higher; the individual investors which have higher turnover have the higher probability of participation in margin trading.